How Long Will the Taliban Government Last?

 By the construction of hundreds of Islamic schools around the nation, the Taliban are methodically creating versions three and four of the dictatorship.

The order to raise the third and fourth generations of radicals, the Taliban revealed their plan to create hundreds of Islamic schools around the nation. The group is also converting academic institutions into religious schools and converting curricula into a strict version of religion. This would aid them in strategically strengthening the foundations of their government. Afghans, on the other hand, are tired of the tight regulations that the Taliban impose on them without offering any public services. For Afghans, the abrupt transition from a life of freedom to one of restriction under the Taliban is alarming.

Millions of Afghans have fled the nation or are attempting to do so since the group outlawed women's employment and education, while some have joined resistance groups fighting the group. Poverty and unemployment are also at all-time highs. The group is not recognised by any one nation. Unknown planes reportedly shoot fighters for Al Qaida and ISIS while circling above the Taliban every day. The Taliban: Will they endure? What time frame does their government have?

The Taliban administration might continue for more than five years.

People obey the Taliban because of their oppressive rule. When someone objects to them, they leave right away. In order to eventually increase the number of its fighters, the Taliban also work methodically to create versions three and four of themselves by constructing hundreds of religious schools all over the nation. In the same spot in Khost Province where American Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl was freed in 2014 as part of a prisoner swap for five important Taliban prisoners from Guantánamo Bay, the Taliban's interior minister Sirajuddin Haqqani established the first Islamic school

There are approximately 6,000 religious schools in the nation, according to the Taliban Ministry of Education, which also stated that the organisation intends to construct 34 major religious schools in each of the provinces to accommodate up to 34,000 students at once. The Taliban authority would last for more than five years, at the very least, thanks to such organised production of the subsequent generation.

A crucial point is that there is no potent domestic anti-Taliban military group that can compete with the Taliban in strength or capabilities. The National Resistance Front's (NRF) leader, Ahmad Massoud, has claimed to have up to 4,000 militants, or 4% of the Taliban's army. This amount is insufficient to topple the Taliban government in the upcoming years. While the NRF has received little international help to date, the Taliban have the support of Pakistan.

The Taliban are comparable to the religious dictatorship in Iran, which has ruled for 43 years despite being heavily sanctioned by the international community and facing opposition from all corners of the globe. The leaders of the Taliban are commonly encountered by Westerners both in Afghanistan and abroad. Since the Taliban seized power, the U.S. alone has given Afghanistan over $1.1 billion in humanitarian aid, all of which goes to the Taliban.

It's also important to note that the West has other concerns that keep it preoccupied and keep it from focusing on the Taliban, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which could turn into a protracted conflict, the U.S.-China trade dispute, the post-COVID-19 disorder, and climate change, which results in severe food and resource shortages and the spread of diseases.

Significant security issues would be faced by the Taliban regime.

The nation's security is threatened by more than just Taliban insurgents. Among other things, the warriors for Daesh have engaged in a number of bloody battles with the Taliban. In Afghanistan, Daesh is thought to have between 4,000 and 5,000 fighters. Once Kabul fell, the so-called Islamic State published a commentary in which it said that the Taliban had betrayed Jihadists by signing a peace deal with the United States, and it promised to keep fighting them.

Daesh has launched deadly assaults ever since the Taliban seized control of the city. A explosion that occurred near the Taliban's Foreign Ministry last week and resulted in five deaths and forty injuries was blamed on Daesh. In a separate event last month, Daesh assaulted the military airport of the Taliban in Kabul, leaving 20 people dead and 30 injured. Daesh also assaulted a hotel in Kabul last month, resulting in 21 fatalities.

Abdul Munir, a leader for Daesh, claimed in a CNN interview that he is in charge of 600 militants, including Central Asians, Pakistanis, and Indians. "We may restart our operations when the foreigners and the people of the world leave Afghanistan," he continued

Possibility of overthrowing the Taliban regime

The Taliban government would be put to the test by another occurrence similar to 9/11 in any of the NATO member states. A new strategy than in 2001 would be used this time by NATO forces to intervene in Afghanistan. NATO forces may employ its "beyond the horizon" strategy to overthrow the Taliban government. Many jihadist organisations have returned to Afghanistan since the Taliban seized control of the country. During the past 20 years, these organisations have fought alongside the Taliban against US soldiers. Al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri returned to Kabul following the American withdrawal, when he was assassinated by an American drone.

Such organisations run the risk of seeking retribution for the deaths or detention of their fellow jihadists during the American invasion of Afghanistan, including Osama bin Laden, who was assassinated in Islamabad, Pakistan, and al-Zawahiri, who was in Kabul. Around 780 Al Qaeda and Taliban members have been held by the US at Guantánamo Bay since 9/11.

The United States and its friends in the area and around the world may be in danger if these extremist groups return to Afghanistan. Al Qaeda launched two assaults on U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania on the same day under the Taliban's prior rule in the 1990s, resulting in more than 200 fatalities and more than 4,500 injuries.